Titans @ Ravens
Jeremy? Chris? Any thoughts?
I don't know, but I hear that winning 12 games in a row is pretty good when the most you can play in a season is 20. The Ravens won more games in a row than 26 of the other 31 NFL teams did all season. The Baltimore Orioles have lost a game more recently than the Baltimore Ravens have.
You can find any number of stats to support whichever team you want to win. For example this is the 4th time that the top rushing team (Ravens) have played the team with the top rusher (Titans) in the playoffs and the first three times the team with the leading rusher won the match-up. Or how this is the 4th time the Ravens and Titans have met in the playoffs and the road team has won all three previous match-ups, including both of the match-ups where the #1 seed lost.
Some history is in the game, when the Ravens and 49ers met in Super Bowl XLVII Greg Roman was the OC for the 49ers and Dean Pees was the DC for the Ravens. The Ravens won that game... but the 49ers offense put up a LOT of yards because Dean "Prevent Defense" Pees was his usual self and was bailed out by Jimmy Smith with some great plays at the end. Now Roman is on the Ravens and Pees is on the Titans.
MLB Jayon Brown is going to miss the game for the Titans. The Titans already gave up the 9th most yards to TEs this season with Brown in the game and they're going to be a lot worse with him out of the game, because he's the anchor of their LB corps. And you might have heard, but the Ravens like their three headed TE monster a lot.
Mark Ingram is questionable, but expected to play, however the Steelers had a top 10 rushing defense going into week 17, desperately needing to win and the Ravens, without Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram (representing over 2/3rds of their rushing yards for the season) ran for 223 yards with RGIII, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill. So if Ingram does miss the game... there's going to be less production, but it won't mean automatic game over.
As a matter of fact, the difference between the Ravens rushing yards and the Titans rushing yards (who were #3 in rushing this season) is larger than the difference between the Titans and the WORST rushing team in the league (Dolphins). Likewise if you took out every single yard Mark Ingram ran for this season, the Ravens would still have rushed for more yards than the Titans.
Now one thing that's been noted is that Derrick Henry is really good at running the ball on pitches, sweeps, and outside and that that has been a weakness of the Ravens. Which isn't technically true. The Ravens have been great this season against pitches sweeps, and outside runs. Where their weakness has been are runs that are just off-tackle. A subtle difference, but an important one. Basically they've been great as setting the edge, but the underneath guys haven't been able to mop up effectively, while Henry is great at getting to the edge. It's strength on strength, not strength on weakness.
And initially the weather looked bad, with rain being forecast. And while the Ravens have won in the rain, it's noticeably slowed down the offense. But now the forecast has changed and the rain isn't expected to start until after midnight, It's going to be clear skies with balls flying.
Plus the Ravens dominated the league in wide margins in yards per drive, points per drive, plays per drive, and time of possession per drive.
They've never scored fewer than 20 points in a single game this season and after the Marcus Peters trade the only time another team has scored more than 20 points is when the Jets blocked a punt and returned it for a TD.
In pretty much every statistical category, the Ravens defense is the best in the league since they traded for Marcus Peters. Those week 3 and 4 losses to the Chiefs and Browns were they gave up 500 yards in each game were wake-up calls and Eric DeCosta responded by making a ton of moves. For the Titans game this week, the Ravens will have SEVEN different players playing the majority of snaps on defense (I intentionally avoided saying starters because Brandon Carr has consistently been a starter to keep his consecutive game streak intact, but he doesn't play the majority of snaps.) Jimmy Smith and Brandon Williams were injured for that game. Josh Bynes, Marus Peters, L.J. Fort, and Jihad Ward weren't even on the team. And Chuck Clark was a back-up for Tony Jefferson (who went on IR).
There's a reason why the Ravens are favored by 10 points. The Titans have my eternal respect for going into Foxborough and knocking off the Patriots, but the offense that the defense shut down last week is nothing compared to the offense they're facing this week. (And frankly after how the Pats defense looks week 17 against Miami, I'd say the Ravens defense looks better than them too.)
edit: One additional point. In the last 4 seasons, Justin Tucker has made 92% of his FG attempts at M&T Bank stadium. Kickers on the road have made only 72% of their FGs attempted there. Over that same time span, there have been 14 made FGs of 50 yards or more. All 14 were by Justin Tucker... in other words, road kickers have not made a FG of 50 yards or more in M&T Bank stadium since 2015.