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Judge orders VA gun range business can open.

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MoonKnight1
Saturday, May 09, 2020 4:44:07 PM
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Thundercron wrote:
comicuniversity wrote:
Yeah, people like to massage the numbers.

The only one that matters to me is that, as of right now, 72, 800 Americans have died in the last two months from this.

Seperate out all the other bull pucky,

72,800 people have died.
in America.
Alone.
In two months,


Anyone not taking this serious is exercising some absolute next level cognitive dissonance.


Agree 100%. What irks me is when people qualify that number with caveats of "it's mostly the elderly," or "they were already sick." Be careful, in forty or fifty years they may minimize your life by saying the same thing about you.

You can use numbers to argue either side in most arguments and this one is no different.

One side says, "This many people are dying!" and the other side says, "Only this many people are dying!" using the same number.

I thought of a very simple analogy. Hopefully this makes sense.

Tornadoes kill somewhere between one and two thousand people a year. Your chances of getting killed by a tornado are actually quite low. Like I said, "only" a couple thousand people per year get killed by one.

Unless...

There is a Tornado Warning and people are being urged to use caution, stay inside, protect themselves and you figure that since only a handful of people (statistically) are in danger then the chances it happens to you are unlikely. So you go out and wander around blithely even though it's 120 MPH winds and barns are flying through the air.

Obviously this is a serious situation and to deny it is doesn't make any sense. The media didn't make this up, neither did the Democrats or Republicans, it's a thing.

It's also not as horrific as some had predicted nor is it just blowing over like others have said that it would. Social Distancing, self quarantining and general sanitation practices have helped as have government regulations as onerous as they may seem.

I'm pretty certain that things will change for the better, sooner rather than later.

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4saken1
Sunday, May 10, 2020 5:19:20 AM
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If 80% of Americans Wore Masks, COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet, New Study Says

Quote:
It sounds too good to be true. But a compelling new study and computer model provide fresh evidence for a simple solution to help us emerge from this nightmarish lockdown. The formula? Always social distance in public and, most importantly, wear a mask.

If you’re wondering whether to wear or not to wear, consider this. The day before yesterday, 21 people died of COVID-19 in Japan. In the United States, 2,129 died. Comparing overall death rates for the two countries offers an even starker point of comparison with total U.S. deaths now at a staggering 76,032 and Japan’s fatalities at 577. Japan’s population is about 38% of the U.S., but even adjusting for population, the Japanese death rate is a mere 2% of America’s.

This comes despite Japan having no lockdown, still-active subways, and many businesses that have remained open—reportedly including karaoke bars, although Japanese citizens and industries are practicing social distancing where they can. Nor have the Japanese broadly embraced contact tracing, a practice by which health authorities identify someone who has been infected and then attempt to identify everyone that person might have interacted with—and potentially infected. So how does Japan do it?

“One reason is that nearly everyone there is wearing a mask,” said De Kai, an American computer scientist with joint appointments at UC Berkeley’s International Computer Science Institute and at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
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comicuniversity
Sunday, May 10, 2020 2:01:09 PM
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MoonKnight1 wrote:
Thundercron wrote:
comicuniversity wrote:
Yeah, people like to massage the numbers.

The only one that matters to me is that, as of right now, 72, 800 Americans have died in the last two months from this.

Seperate out all the other bull pucky,

72,800 people have died.
in America.
Alone.
In two months,


Anyone not taking this serious is exercising some absolute next level cognitive dissonance.


Agree 100%. What irks me is when people qualify that number with caveats of "it's mostly the elderly," or "they were already sick." Be careful, in forty or fifty years they may minimize your life by saying the same thing about you.

You can use numbers to argue either side in most arguments and this one is no different.

One side says, "This many people are dying!" and the other side says, "Only this many people are dying!" using the same number.

I thought of a very simple analogy. Hopefully this makes sense.

Tornadoes kill somewhere between one and two thousand people a year. Your chances of getting killed by a tornado are actually quite low. Like I said, "only" a couple thousand people per year get killed by one.

Unless...

There is a Tornado Warning and people are being urged to use caution, stay inside, protect themselves and you figure that since only a handful of people (statistically) are in danger then the chances it happens to you are unlikely. So you go out and wander around blithely even though it's 120 MPH winds and barns are flying through the air.

Obviously this is a serious situation and to deny it is doesn't make any sense. The media didn't make this up, neither did the Democrats or Republicans, it's a thing.

It's also not as horrific as some had predicted nor is it just blowing over like others have said that it would. Social Distancing, self quarantining and general sanitation practices have helped as have government regulations as onerous as they may seem.

I'm pretty certain that things will change for the better, sooner rather than later.


Normally i would agree with you about numbers.

This is the outlier, though.

There is no way to play with 80,000 plus deaths from one cause in only two months

That is a devastating number, unless you are Galactus
monidaw1
Tuesday, May 12, 2020 3:01:55 PM
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Quote:
I'm pretty certain that things will change for the better, sooner rather than later.


As near as I can tell nothing unexpected is being forecast. Virus's in general tend to slow down in the warmer months. There is no cure for the virus. There is almost no data showing healthy people have any significant chance of dying from this. The vaccine, if they get everything fast tracked and successful is still 7 to 8 months away at a minimum and realistically 2 years before it's widely mass produced and distributed.

The only, single option that stops this almost completely in less time is a combination of herd immunity and herd shielding. No other option has gotten any significant probability of success.

You're not going to get herd immunity staying at home scared to go out from media hyped fears.

The Governor says testing, testing, testing every minute it feels like during his conferences but I have yet to hear him pushing for more and larger scale antibody testing. That's pretty much the only thing we have that's going to let you know you have it and should be safe to return to work and interact. Even then you still are going to have to use common sense to wash your hands and other basic measures to prevent transferring it through direct contact from someone else with it, to your hands, to someone who hasn't had it yet.

Everyone that's health compromised already needs to stay home and hide until you get a vaccine. The virus will still be around and unseen next week, next month and most likely next year.

If you have already had it you should be able to donate plasma to help others who get it recover. You donate this week. Next month you and the person you helped donate again helping two others. The month after all of you donate again helping 4 others and so forth and at whatever pace they feel is needed. The numbers of recovered people with antibodies could multiply rapidly increasing the survival rate of those who get it later.

Just don't delude yourself into thinking it's not there and always lurking to get you if you haven't gotten it already. It will be no matter which phase your state is in.

Herd shielding is basically taking some of those people who have already had it and should have some degree of immunity and placing them between you and the virus. they can work the registers, deliver the packages, drive the buses, slice the meat, handle the ER and long term health facilities, etc...

The virus will still be there though so wash your hands and whatever else makes sense.



Thundercron
Tuesday, May 12, 2020 4:19:13 PM
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What kills me is how so many people are hanging their hat on the idea that a vaccine will be the silver bullet. Looking at history, we know that these viruses burn themselves out. Did anyone need a vaccine to return to normal after the Spanish Flu? No, they didn't even have vaccines then. More recently, have we all been vaccinated against SARS or MERS? No, it's not a problem. Even the seasonal flu mutates from year to year, and it's always a crapshoot regarding how effective each yearly vaccine will be. COVID-19 will be long gone by the time a vaccine is approved and distributed to hospitals around the world. Although I'm sure that won't stop every hospital, politician, and media outlet urging us to get the shot anyway. Because $$$.
MoonKnight1
Tuesday, May 12, 2020 4:58:42 PM
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Isn't it odd how History Repeats: The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918

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Thundercron
Tuesday, May 12, 2020 6:23:30 PM
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MoonKnight1 wrote:
Isn't it odd how History Repeats: The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918


I think you have your links goofed up, Howie.
padreglcc
Tuesday, May 12, 2020 6:40:21 PM
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Thundercron wrote:
MoonKnight1 wrote:
Isn't it odd how History Repeats: The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918


I think you have your links goofed up, Howie.

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MoonKnight1
Tuesday, May 12, 2020 6:54:08 PM
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padreglcc wrote:
Thundercron wrote:
MoonKnight1 wrote:
Isn't it odd how History Repeats: The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918


I think you have your links goofed up, Howie.

Rolling on the Floor Rolling on the Floor

Or maybe not...Devil Shame on You

Here's what I was going for...Blush

The Real Spanish Flu Link

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bluedevil2002
Tuesday, May 12, 2020 8:24:28 PM
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Thundercron wrote:
What kills me is how so many people are hanging their hat on the idea that a vaccine will be the silver bullet. Looking at history, we know that these viruses burn themselves out. Did anyone need a vaccine to return to normal after the Spanish Flu? No, they didn't even have vaccines then. More recently, have we all been vaccinated against SARS or MERS? No, it's not a problem. Even the seasonal flu mutates from year to year, and it's always a crapshoot regarding how effective each yearly vaccine will be. COVID-19 will be long gone by the time a vaccine is approved and distributed to hospitals around the world. Although I'm sure that won't stop every hospital, politician, and media outlet urging us to get the shot anyway. Because $$$.


Thank you.

Along similar lines, how come we aren't being encouraged to do anything to boost our immune systems? The main guidelines have been stay away from people and wash your hands. Why isn't anyone pushing any sort of vitamin regimen? Seems like that would be a little more proactive at fighting the virus.
padreglcc
Wednesday, May 13, 2020 10:06:17 PM
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bluedevil2002 wrote:
Thundercron wrote:
What kills me is how so many people are hanging their hat on the idea that a vaccine will be the silver bullet. Looking at history, we know that these viruses burn themselves out. Did anyone need a vaccine to return to normal after the Spanish Flu? No, they didn't even have vaccines then. More recently, have we all been vaccinated against SARS or MERS? No, it's not a problem. Even the seasonal flu mutates from year to year, and it's always a crapshoot regarding how effective each yearly vaccine will be. COVID-19 will be long gone by the time a vaccine is approved and distributed to hospitals around the world. Although I'm sure that won't stop every hospital, politician, and media outlet urging us to get the shot anyway. Because $$$.


Thank you.

Along similar lines, how come we aren't being encouraged to do anything to boost our immune systems? The main guidelines have been stay away from people and wash your hands. Why isn't anyone pushing any sort of vitamin regimen? Seems like that would be a little more proactive at fighting the virus.

Along these lines, some of the studies I've been seeing have noted a correlation (which does not necessarily equal causation) between vitamin D deficiency and morbidity. Even more so than age.
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monidaw1
Thursday, May 14, 2020 7:56:17 AM
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Vitamin C was mentioned back in March then quickly forgotten about.
https://www.newsmax.com/health/health-news/covid-19-vitamin-c-supplements/2020/03/20/id/959180/

Getting better doesn't generate clicks, likes, shares and all the things the media craves with their non stop scare tactics.

Todays big question is what was the wording of the Wisconsin stay at home order that was overturned by the Supreme Court yesterday and how does that particular order compare to some of the other States criminal Governors overreaches like VA, Michigan, etc...

I'm watching bar and restaurants filled with people last night there. Tomorrow restaurants here can start letting people eat outside? You can stand and shop for hours inside Walmarts, Home Depots and 50% capacity at every other retail store tomorrow but you can't sit at a table 6 or more feet apart for the same time or less? I could see inside with paper menus, condiments in packs, etc, maybe even paper throwaway plates but nothing at all? Part of the PPE loans was about keeping the staff on the payroll but this sounds like 1/2 of the waitresses wouldn't even be needed. If you went half in, half out then that at least with the temporary expanded outside seating locations are getting approved for and liquor licensed to serve drinks outdoors for that would get closer to precovid seating capacity for some on days it's not raining allowing everyone back to work.

I'm curious to see how many of the 5 barbers and beauticians close to me reopen tomorrow and how many are out of business. Mom said last night the lady that cut her hair for years gave up and retired.

Georgia which reopened weeks ago and everyone was pronounced to be doomed!!!! by all the Facebook expurts one liners appears to be doing well.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/georgia-reports-lowest-number-covid-patients-in-a-month
monidaw1
Thursday, May 14, 2020 10:13:36 AM
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Finally an article showing what I've been saying for a while that UV treatment inside the body at the direct place of infection is a real possibility.

Quote:
President Trump has been mocked relentlessly for suggesting that ultraviolet light could be brought “inside the body” to kill the coronavirus, but there is ongoing research to do just that.
For example, the pharmaceutical firm Aytu BioScience announced on April 20, four days before the Trump remarks, that it has signed an exclusive licensing deal with Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles. The center has developed and is testing a UV-A “Healight” designed to be inserted via a catheter inside the trachea to kill pathogens, including the coronavirus.
Ultraviolet, or UV, light is commonly used by physicians to treat skin diseases. Cedars-Sinai says UV-A phototherapy potentially could be employed in internal organs.

Aytu BioScience said: “The Healight technology employs proprietary methods of administering intermittent ultraviolet (UV) A light via a novel endotracheal medical device. Pre-clinical findings indicate the technology’s significant impact on eradicating a wide range of viruses and bacteria, inclusive of coronavirus. The data have been the basis of discussions with the FDA for a near-term path to enable human use for the potential treatment of coronavirus in intubated patients in the intensive care unit (ICU).”
At Thursday’s White House pandemic task force briefing, Mr. Trump talked of possible future therapies. On the dais, William Bryan, acting director of the Department of Homeland Security’s science and technology sector, briefed reporters on how UV light can kill surface viruses. Mr. Byran also spoke of experiments with bleach and isopropyl alcohol eliminating viruses in expelled saliva and respiratory fluids.
This prompted Mr. Trump to say, “I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or, or almost a cleaning?”
And then he turned to ultraviolet light.

"A video animation shows a catheter being inserted inside the trachea, stopping at the bronchial tubes and the light being administered.
Infection is one of the most common and serious side effects for intensive care patients on tracheal intubation to breath."


We used to sell UV lights for aquariums and reptiles and what little I know on the subject was that a specific coating could be applied to the bulb so the output would be UV and back in the 90's the technology existed to turn that coating into a strip you could just apply to the glass of your aquarium lid so you could use any old inexpensive bulb of sufficient power to achieve the result instead of having to replace expensive bulbs all the time as they burnt out but of course, there's no money in that so it never can to light.

I've seen catheters and such with lights and cameras being used to scope and examine patients internally. Common sense says it should be possible to adjust the intensity, duration and spectrum to what would be needed to kill viruses in the upper respiratory tracts safely and instantly.

Makes me excited to imagine all the things medicine will be capable of in centuries to come. Maybe some type of microbots applying tiny doses of medicine to specific internal locations.
monidaw1
Thursday, May 14, 2020 3:19:38 PM
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How about this nice development. We let seemingly healthy individuals that are convicted criminals out so they have less chance of testing positive while in the system, and they appear to be placing everyone else at some level of increased risk for violence, robbery or harm.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/12/over-100-inmates-rearrested-after-their-coronavirus-release/?utm_campaign=iphone_nyp&utm_source=facebook_app&fbclid=IwAR3PGdQB1db32izWj4dHal4gIuS4PdhM_gHc5RNTf_8WwicwjdQLMhx0v1s

Noone could see this coming? At Wits' End

Quote:
Brown, who has 20 previous arrests, is suspected of 18 burglaries at closed eateries from April 21 to May 4.
In several of the break-ins, the suspect wore a surgical mask and cut through vinyl coverings of restaurant vestibules before breaking through the front doors, cops said.
When Brown was finally charged for the break-ins Sunday, he immediately was returned to the street after his arraignment because of New York controversial bail-reform laws, according to police sources and court records.


Let me see if I understand this. He gets let out, immediately does as many as 18 more robberies, and is immediately released again? Time Out

I guess since he wore a facemask it's okay.
monidaw1
Friday, May 15, 2020 10:19:21 AM
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3 of the 5 hairdressers and barbers are now open. No sign of lights on the other two on the end of the block. Restaurant still can't have anyone inside eating. Police tape still blocking the entrance to the playground this morning.


Doing a little digging today.

Checking the numbers online today it appears my county, "Nottoway" has no deaths that can be tied to Corona. The 4 counties around my county, Ameila has 1, Prince Edward is showing no number reported and Dinwiddie and Lunenburg are showing zero deaths. My county has a sexual predator facility and a prison right down the road. Lunenburg has a prison. Most of the counties should have jails and there was one of those large government funded holding facilities opening up in Prince Edward back in the late 00's for illegal immigrants being held until they could get a court date/ up to 6 months I believe they said. That's basically a 5 county area with a total of one death yet we still can't sun tan, sit down, relax, swim or eat a meal indoors. I think half of us can go to church this week but I've yet to hear the breakdown for which half. Maybe they'll do it alphabetically. A thru M can come on even number weekends, N thru Z on odd.

I also stumbled across this page at the CDC.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-at-higher-risk.html

It's pretty straight forward about who's at higher risk and who's not.

That's led to some additional questions.
The 65 and older crowd should already be getting Social Security from the government and for many have no need to work so they really shouldn't be out in the workforce in mass to begin with.

The big debate right now is for further $$$ to be thrown at the problem. Do you feel an increase to Social Security payments to encourage them to stay home for the next year to wait for a vaccine is a way to go or would you prefer something like a direct payment to grocers, pharmacies and such to provide free no touch deliveries to them while they're at home would be a more appropriate use of funding so they have no reason to go out?

How about those with underlying health risks? Should they remain eligible for unemployment for the same time so they can stay home?

It's obvious sending the 1st round of support out is already kicking the governments butts so I'm not sure how much more dispersement they'd even be capable of. I wasn't eligible for the $1200 payment. My two parents over 70 getting SS, one got the payment, the others still waiting and my 30+ brother with severe downs Syndrome hasn't received his $1200 yet either so that's 66% unfulfilled after almost two months. I'm thinking any additional payments might not make it before Christmas!!!


bluedevil2002
Saturday, May 16, 2020 12:20:52 PM
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comicuniversity wrote:
Yeah, people like to massage the numbers.

The only one that matters to me is that, as of right now, 72, 800 Americans have died in the last two months from this.

Seperate out all the other bull pucky,

72,800 people have died.
in America.
Alone.
In two months,

Anyone not taking this serious is exercising some absolute next level cognitive dissonance.


Even that number is massaged. Or at least needs context.

For one thing, exactly what kind of deaths are being counted? I think (at least in some areas) that the numbers basically reflect dead folk that came back with a positive test at some point. What if a person had a condition like a brain tumor and just happened to contract COVID in the week prior to dying?

For context, how many Americans die in a two month stretch on average? What do the numbers look like for other causes of death?

How many of the COVID deaths would have occurred anyway? I'm sure there's at least a percentage of people who were at a point where the next illness they contracted would kill them, and it just happened to be this one. Granted, this is one question we won't really be able to get answered with any certainty.

And then I heard a story of a guy who was scheduled to have a stint put in back in March. The surgery was cancelled due to COVID risk. A week later, he died of a heart attack. Do we count that as a COVID death?

It is possible to take this seriously, but also believe that the response has been mishandled, and that the "cure" could be doing more harm to society than the disease it's trying to fight.
MoonKnight1
Saturday, May 16, 2020 1:13:26 PM
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I do not want to make light of the situation at all. However, as Chip mentioned, context has to be taken into account.

So a 93 year old guy with a heart condition or liver problems or any other number of health issues contracts the virus and dies. Was it the virus that caused the death or did it just facilitate it? If you have one foot in the grave and the other foot on a banana peel, in this case Covid-19, do you blame the banana peel or say well it was bound to happen sooner or later anyway? Not trying to be callous or anything just trying to use perspective.

And yes, I am fully aware that young, healthy people have contracted it and died. I am taking it seriously but I do think that some numbers have been "massaged" either up or down to fit the conclusions that certain people have been making. Not pointing fingers at anyone here, talking more about media and government in general.


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monidaw1
Saturday, May 16, 2020 1:58:58 PM
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I just read an article a few minutes ago about someone with a blood alcohol content so high he died of alcohol poisoning getting the covid thing listed.

I really hope that when this is all said and done, a panel is assigned to look into each and every one of these deaths even if it takes decades and when necessary adjust the numbers and go back after the people who got paid more for having it listed as such. At the least they should be refunding the money if not outright charged with fraud of some type.

I read somewhere else today about some pandemic that hit from 68-70 that killed about 100,000 in the US. I never heard of that one either but there was a nice picture of the crowds at Woodstock right in the middle of it. It appears no politicians fighting over it and no media fear hype let it slide right out of public awareness.

State of the stupidity for today.
It appears we've been listing total tests including antibody tests all under one number even though the two tests show two different answers to two different questions. Apparently as early as Monday now that they've been called out on it and questioned about including the Brand x tests with the high percentage of bad results they're going to separate the two tests into separate categories, no explanation yet why they aren't using the 4 approved tests from the CDC/FDA instead of Brand X.

No explanation I heard said how many of the positive test results were from which test type so that makes me question if the antibody positive tests were being added to the other tests for active infections positive results, if that doesn't mean the active infection rate is actually lower than expected. I guess we'll find out Monday.

Meanwhile, while all this questionable data is out on the street, the Richmond mayor asks at the last minute to keep the Richmond citizens locked up an extra two weeks based on that questionable data.

The 1st problem with that is he waited too late to act since restaurants had already called people back from unemployment to work that now are ineligible for unemployment it seems. Now what do they do for the next two weeks?

The 2nd problem with this is the restaurants had already spent money they probably don't have extra of restocking and now some of that food is going to either go to waste or it'll need to be donated which does nothing to restock the cupboards again two weeks from now.

The 3rd problem is this is the same mayor who just had sound bits a week or so ago looking rather silly and pathetic asking where the people were going when the cell phone tracking of their movements showed them leaving home in large numbers. I believe I remember him saying where are they going? That in and of itself should be obvious. If you can't work, you can't go the gym, you can't go out to eat, you can't go to church, you can't go to a ball game, then here in the country you go FISHING!!!! You visit some relatives or friends in the country to play basketball at their house where you want get busted. Drugs don't grow on sidewalks, you need farmland and contacts out of town to restock. There's 80 Dollar stores to check trying to find that last roll of toilet paper. Liquor sales were up I believe they said $30 million dollars in April. ABC stores are open!!! You name it and there's things you can do and ways to do it. Even the governor said you could go to non essential businesses as long as they had less than 10 people at a time inside. Now all you've done is given small business's in Richmond more hardship to have to endure and all those people another two week's worth of reason to leave the city limits and give their sales tax money to other localities which they will. Don't think so, check the illegal tracking stuff again on their phones two weeks from now and you'll see the truth.

I want my donuts but I'm not sure I'm willing to drive an hour to bring you meals tax money if I can't at least sit down outside and eat a few before having to drive back!! Maybe the one on 60 is over the city limit sign. Daydreaming





comicuniversity
Saturday, May 16, 2020 2:16:36 PM
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All i'm going to say is...."I heard a story"....is useless.

I heard a story is not evidence of any kind of a scientific empirical nature.



Listen, Opinions are Ok to have.

But, your opinion isn't worth as much as scientific data.

Right now, the collected data has placed the death toll at a certain number. As we know with science, new data sometimes changes things. When/if new data changes the covid-19 death toll then we deal with that number. We don't use that number to pound the experts.
That's the thing about conspiracy theorists. They NEVER change their tune and never seem to catch any heat when they are wrong.
Scientists (at least good ones) actually admit that new data changes their theories all the time. It's why they can be trusted. Instead of pounding them when it turns out they were wrong, we should praise them for the openness.


Just deciding that you don't believe something because you "heard" something takes you much further from the truth than just believing the reported numbers (even if they end up being wrong).

Remember, even the death toll during 9/11 changed multiple times as more data came in. However, doubting those numbers didn't change the seriousness of the event.



my 2 cents.
bluedevil2002
Saturday, May 16, 2020 3:57:19 PM
Rank: Watcher
Groups: Member
Location: Chesterfield, VA
Joined: 7/19/2010 | Posts: 739 | Points: 7,859
Okay...so here's the story: https://www.insidenova.com/sports/prince_william/verdell-robinson-s-family-refuses-to-dwell-on-what-ifs/article_6d8cd976-7112-11ea-9d40-cfb56e327fa3.html

Guy was scheduled to get a stent put in on March 20, but it got cancelled due to covid concerns. He had a heart attack on March 21 and died. Now, he might have died March 21 anyway, or he might have caught the virus while in the hospital and died later. Obviously, we'll never know. But my point is that there is collateral damage going on.
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